A major new development in U.S. solar manufacturing could have significant implications for the silver market. Elon Musk recently indicated that both Tesla and SpaceX are independently working toward building 100 gigawatts (GW) of solar manufacturing capacity each, for a combined total of 200 GW annually. If achieved, this would more than triple current U.S. solar manufacturing capacity, which stood at roughly 60 GW as of late 2025.
The key question for metals investors is simple: how much silver would this require?
Silver remains a critical input in photovoltaic (PV) cells, particularly in crystalline silicon technologies, where it is used in conductive pastes. According to silver analyst Chen Lin, a useful rule of thumb is that each gigawatt of solar capacity requires approximately 700,000 ounces of silver. Using that framework, a 200 GW buildout would imply silver demand of roughly 140 million ounces. This represents a high-end estimate and highlights the potential scale of demand if silver intensity remains elevated.
However, industry data suggests a somewhat lower range based on current technological efficiencies. Modern solar panels typically use between 8.9 and 12.2 milligrams of silver per watt. Applying a midpoint assumption of 10 mg per watt, 200 GW of production would require approximately 64 million ounces of silver annually. At the low end, using 8.9 mg per watt, demand would fall closer to 57 million ounces, while higher-efficiency but more silver-intensive designs could push usage toward 78 million ounces.
A reasonable base-case estimate, therefore, is that Tesla and SpaceX together could consume between 60 and 80 million ounces of silver per year at full production capacity, with approximately 64 million ounces as a central estimate.
It is important to note that the 200 GW figure refers to annual manufacturing capacity, not a one-time build. This means silver demand would be recurring. At full utilization, one year of production could consume over 60 million ounces, while five years could approach 300 million ounces, and a decade could exceed 600 million ounces.
To put this into perspective, 64 million ounces would represent roughly 8 percent of total global silver supply, based on current projection 820 million ounces. Even at the lower end of estimates, this is a meaningful new source of industrial demand.
Whether using the higher heuristic of 140 million ounces or the more conservative 60–80 million ounce range, the takeaway is clear: large-scale solar expansion at this level has the potential to materially tighten the silver market.
end of segment
-
our opinions are not our sponsors opinions
-
the editorial department is separate from the promotions department
-
not financial advice