Let’s first recall who started an economic war with China. I will let you all think about that or do your own research.
How is that working for USA?
Did tariffs bring jobs back to US?
please do your own research on that topic but allow me to offer a visual clue below…
yet we kept hearing that tariffs would spark some “Made in USA” event. Nope, Nada, Zilch!
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Trump regime levied reckless and ill advised and illegal tariffs (Strike 1)
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Then tried stealing China’s oil (Strike 2)
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Funny how every time NATO or the U.S. tries to take something by force, it ends up backfiring.
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The 2022 seizure of Russia’s reserves triggered de‑dollarization — the very spark that ignited the dollar’s long slide.”
U.S. seizures of Venezuela‑linked oil tankers directly hit China because China is the largest buyer of Venezuelan crude, forcing Beijing to reroute or pay more for replacement barrels. This made China very very mad which is working out well for Silver stackers and China.
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Strike 3, You’re Out. US Strikes out and the third pitch is a nasty breaking ball north of 100mph , not a slider, not a drop, not a fast ball, but a Silvery rocket and US didn’t even go down swinging.
China understands the leverage game. U.S. banks are short roughly 500 million ounces—nearly a full year of global silver mine output. Those positions are paper IOUs that can’t all be covered without detonating the price. By restricting exports, China tightens the one market the U.S. is weakest in. It’s economic chess: America
manipulatessteals oil through Venezuela; Chinamanipulatesnow controls silver through export control.
The question is power—if you control the resource, do you want the price lower or higher when the other side needs to buy? HIGHER OF COURSE
China just detonated the silver market’s core illusion: the world’s biggest supplier of real metal is closing the export spigot into a market already running on fumes.
China Closes the Silver Door
Starting January 1, 2026, silver exports from China move to a full state‑controlled licensing system.
To ship silver abroad, companies must now secure government licenses and meet stringent thresholds: roughly 80 tonnes or more of annual production and large bank credit lines, criteria that effectively eliminate small and mid‑sized exporters from the game.
China directly or indirectly controls an estimated 60–70% of global silver supply once domestic mining and dore imports are included.
When a player that large tightens exports, tradable supply to the West shrinks almost overnight—exactly the same playbook Beijing used in prior rare earth crackdowns to maximize leverage over downstream industries.
A Market Already in Deficit
This export squeeze lands on top of a structural deficit, now running five years in a row.
Recent data show global supply around 830 million ounces versus demand near 1.24 billion ounces in a recent year, leaving a shortfall on the order of 300+ million ounces that must be bridged by inventories and scrap.
Mine supply is not responding. (but we have some good insights below on a miner developing a massive deposit)
Silver production is largely a by‑product of copper, lead, and zinc mining, where project lead times stretch 7–10 years and ore grades are trending lower.
Recycling is growing but remains far too small and inelastic to close the gap, meaning deficits are being papered over by drawing down the limited pool of above‑ground bullion.
Inventories Are Bleeding Out
Visible inventories are collapsing across the global system.
COMEX registered stocks have fallen sharply from pandemic‑era highs, while total inventories are now a fraction of levels seen in 2020.
London vaults have shed more than half of their silver in roughly eighteen months, dropping from around 15,000 metric tonnes to below 7,500 tonnes by late 2025—a drain not seen in decades. Our latest reporting now has LBMA vaults standing at ZERO SILVER (when considering the people in line who want to stand for delivery)
Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses sit near multi‑year lows, even as Chinese industrial demand and investment buying remain strong.
The result is an unprecedented regional stress: Shanghai silver has traded at double‑digit premiums to COMEX, with recent snapshots showing a gap of over 10 dollars per ounce—far above normal freight and insurance spreads.
That premium is the market’s way of screaming that physical metal is scarce where it is most needed and that paper benchmarks no longer represent the true clearing price for deliverable silver.
Paper Claims vs. Real Metal
Against this backdrop, Western pricing remains dominated by leveraged paper contracts, not actual bars.
Open interest on futures and OTC derivatives represents many times the available registered inventory, leaving a structure where a modest percentage of contract holders demanding delivery would overwhelm the system.
As inventories fall and export controls bite, each ounce of physical must serve an absurd and growing stack of synthetic claims.
Volatility spikes and sudden vertical price moves are not “speculation gone wild” but the inevitable consequence of a market trying to reconcile fantasy leverage with finite metal.
Industrial Demand Will Not Back Down
Silver is now primarily an industrial metal and a strategic input.
Industrial fabrication accounts for roughly half—or more—of total demand, driven by solar photovoltaics, electronics, EVs, and advanced medical applications.
Global solar capacity is still expanding, with PV alone consuming well over 150 million ounces per year, while China’s own factories and grid upgrades require ever greater volumes of high‑purity silver.
These users cannot simply “swap in another metal” without sacrificing performance, forcing them to pay whatever price is required to secure supply in a tightening market.
And as first reported on this very channel, Samsung’s EV battery:
We reported on this in August of 2024 and then starting last month other analysts picked up on the story
1. half the charging time
2. twice the battery life
3. twice the range per charge
4. 40% lighter
5. Lower overall cost when calculating life expectancy – This devours more silver than even solar based on the law of common sense. Name a consumer that wants inferior battery systems?
Silver has become the Engine of the Future — the metal powering every innovation in energy, technology, and industry.
There’s no shortage of silver — only a shortage at prices below $500–$2,000 per ounce. The world’s largest banks, refiners, and manufacturers aren’t chasing a narrative; they’re scrambling to secure supply amid export controls, drained vaults, and a paper market detached from physical reality.
Silver isn’t spiking on speculation — it’s repricing to truth. A genuine, global physical squeeze is unfolding.
As miners begin reporting profits from this surge, expect face‑melting revaluations. The window for “early” is gone. It’s go time — now.
Aya Gold and Silver
Mineral Resource Estimate
Boumadine Project
Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (OTC: AYASF) reported an updated mineral resource estimate for its Boumadine project in Morocco ( chart above from February 2025) And few grasp just how significant this development will be amid all the bullish silver headlines we’re already tracking.
Check out the chart above:
Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (OTC: AYASF) has just delivered what the silver market has been waiting for — a discovery with true scale and global significance. The company’s Boumadine project now boasts 15,097,000 ounces of indicated silver and 76,804,000 ounces inferred, for a total exceeding 91.8 million ounces of contained silver. This is not just another update — it’s a breakout moment.
In a world where analysts have lamented the lack of major new silver finds, Boumadine stands as the rare outlier. Aya is emerging as a new power in global silver, and this is the moment for investors to take notice — and take position.
Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (OTC: AYASF) continues to impress with sustained growth at its flagship Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco. Widely regarded as one of the world’s fastest‑advancing primary silver producers, Zgounder has evolved from a modest operation into a cornerstone asset with expanding reserves, improving grades, and rising output. The company’s disciplined execution and technical excellence have positioned Zgounder among the sector’s top emerging projects. As expansion plans progress, analysts see Zgounder as a benchmark for responsible development and transformative regional investment, reaffirming Aya’s role as a leading force in the next generation of silver mining.
end of segment
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not financial advice